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Andy Baio

You forgot holographic nachos.


Excellent, though-compelling post, Leonard.

BTW in point #6 there's a spelling error you may want to fix: "but not that normal people are being exposed to" is probably "but now..."?


"Things like social networking and media sharing services will increasingly be integrated at the OS level and prepackaged with hardware."

I hope that in five years we won't have locally installed software beyond the OS and a few basic apps. I could imagine Office, Photoshop, and even something like iMovie be run entirely online, through a browser. Aside from the OS and a web browser, I'd love it if my 2011 computer didn't have any other locally-installed software at all.


I think you're dead on, especially re: spimes, personal moritoring, self data aggregate convergence.

Hmm, 2011... Aren't we supposed to have SWARMING KILLER ROBOTS then? I mean, for the good of Democracy.


The line is increasingly blurring more and more as things as apps become network based and your local copy acts more as a cache and automatically updates/syncs.

In 2011 people will be running something like OSX 10.8-11 or MS Vista/Fiji their desktop. I don't know if we'll be at automagically managed everything by then.

For phones and and 3D chocolate printers though, definitely.


We don't have to worry about the SWARMING KILLER ROBOTS because they'll only be sold to responsible agencies like the military and police (i saw it on ETECH, it must be true!), not those nasty terrorists commmiting acts of assymetric warfare by hanging themselves in Geneva-convention defying concentration camps.


What about materials in general, and especially materials and components that are geared towards energy efficiency? I can see things like LEDs/compact fluorescents for lighting being standard in 5 years if energy prices keep rising. Also, carbon fiber and other light/strong engineered stuff should be much more widely used, if they can get it to scale production-wise. I'd say energy costs in general are going to be a huge driver of tech adoption in the next 10 years or so. About time.


Yeah, I can see LEDs and CFLs beingmore popular, but they are pretty much everywhere already.

I think the big question is will there be relapse 10 years later where everyone starts driving SUVs again (somehow, I doubt that, but who would have thought that would have happened after the 70s oil crunch?).


Oh yeah, on the materials science front, I have to say, carbon nanotech gets me really excited: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/08/carbon_nanoribb.php


"Global digital identity / reputation / relationship system - as you're
online persona gets tied to your offline persona and your physical
presence (digital leakage?), this is a given.  Perhaps the only real
question is who will own and run this."

I see digital identity moving down the stack and standardizing itself around several major attributes that are measured by transactions which are generic as the ip packets & mail headers are today. The market won't allow a single entitiy to control or define an important aspect of ourselves as our identity or reputation. Instead there will be a rough and messy collection of services such as an eBay or Alexa ranking that will all feed into publically available webservices and a layer of services that will compete to aggregate your reputation and identity.

The things that are important to a Facebook crowd are going to be different from an eBay crowd so it will ultimately be up to the person looking you up to decide how they want to size you up.


Nice job! Care to tell me the lottery numbers for June 2016?

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